Macro:
So the newspapers say that China will depreciate its currency and lower its VAT to stimulate its exports in the face of US tariffs.
Does this mean that Iphones will become more and more expensive for the Chinese consumer? China is both Apple's manufacturer and consumer. What does this augur for Apple in the short- to mid-term?
Micro:
So a friend regaled us with accounts of her trips to Johor Bahru where she scored manicures at what she deems as a "steal".
What does a manicure even mean? To me, a manicure is a social signaler as much as it as a product of grooming. A manicure tells whosoever looking at your hands that you have disposable income (social signalling effect). Of course, a well-done, tasteful manicure is in itself a beautiful rendering. (On the nails of a client with gaudy tendencies, a manicure is a parade of unsightly ostentation, but I have digressed). So, how does making an arduous journey into Johor Bahru gel with the concept of a cushy lifestyle associated with disposable income? Enduring that awful trip is in fact a very violation of cushiness!
A manicure should be performed in a cool, quiet, and elegant ambience for it to qualify as a worthwhile experience. One should never need to fight the throbbing throngs at that Johor customs clearance, undergo the roller coaster ride of public commute, and withstand the awful traffic pollution to reach the manicurist.
I cannot pretend to be holier-than-thou, because I too, have sought the services of manicurists from time to time. I enjoy the attention, interaction and personal touch of the manicurist. There is a comforting pleasure in the physical contact in such a context. I love the mirror gloss of a fresh gelish manicure. In particular, I like my nails in a shade of fiery red. It beautifies my hands instantly. But let's consider the costs - is it worth it?
Market rates for a plain (with color coat but strictly no artwork) gelish manicure is about SGD40 (USD29). A well-done gelish treatment (performed by a skilful manicurist using quality paints) should last a fussy woman three weeks, a less fussy one about 4. Assume for simplicity 12 manicures a year.
A woman who spends SGD480 (USD350) per year on manicures is forgoing SGD800 (USD584) of compounded interest (assuming 4% p.a.) over 25 years.
Let me reiterate that I am in fact an extraordinarily vain woman. At the same time, I am a highly calculative woman. I am mulling over these figures to make sense of it.
Conscious arguments for continued vanity spending:
- Why are you so sure that YOU WILL BE ALIVE for another 25 years? Who promised you that? Life is unpredictable. YOLO
- Why are you so sure that this WORLD will still be in existence for another 25 years?
- Why are you so sure that FIAT CURRENCY will continue to be LEGAL TENDER in another 25 years?
- Why are you so sure that whichever currency that you are holding will not inflate itself into BANANA?
Sure, while there are a lot of crazy, unpredictable twists and turns to life, such wild theories about the unknown have crossed into the realm of fantasy. Chaos is everywhere but we have to super-impose some assumptions over the murkiness to begin any sort of orderly planning. Eventually, simple mathematics should trump all wild speculations about the faraway future, shouldn't it?
Daily Spending Report:
Lunch - Cai png (brown rice with sliced pork stir-fried in soya sauce gravy, french beans) - SGD4.30 (USD3.14)
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